Probabilities Are All You Need: A Probability-Only Approach to Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

Manh Nguyen, Sunil Gupta 0001, Hung Le 0002. Probabilities Are All You Need: A Probability-Only Approach to Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models. In Sven Koenig, Chad Jenkins, Matthew E. Taylor, editors, Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Thirty-Eighth Conference on Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Sixteenth Symposium on Educational Advances in Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2026, Singapore, January 20-27, 2026. pages 32546-32554, AAAI Press, 2026. [doi]

@inproceedings{NguyenGL26,
  title = {Probabilities Are All You Need: A Probability-Only Approach to Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models},
  author = {Manh Nguyen and Sunil Gupta 0001 and Hung Le 0002},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1609/aaai.v40i38.40531},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v40i38.40531},
  researchr = {https://researchr.org/publication/NguyenGL26},
  cites = {0},
  citedby = {0},
  pages = {32546-32554},
  booktitle = {Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Thirty-Eighth Conference on Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Sixteenth Symposium on Educational Advances in Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2026, Singapore, January 20-27, 2026},
  editor = {Sven Koenig and Chad Jenkins and Matthew E. Taylor},
  publisher = {AAAI Press},
  isbn = {978-1-57735-906-7},
}